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Land managers are regularly required to make decisions regarding restoration, often based on little more than business as usual practices, and in the face of future climate uncertainty. In the dryland, temperate ecosystems of the US, it is recognized that restoration success is largely dictated by the probability of avoiding severely dry surface soil conditions until plants can develop a sufficient root systems. Although recognition of these risks are growing, no tools are available to help natural resource managers understand short-term, site-specific exposure. A new product from the National Weather Service provides short-term forecasts (< 1 year) of future climate conditions. We’ll leverage the established Land Treatment Exploration Tool and the framework of our CDI 2018 funded Long-term Drought Simulator, to create a new product that will enable managers to quickly access multi-month climate forecasts and provide quantitative guidance about what these mean for the probability of seeding and planting success. In addition, we will showcase our Long-term Drought Simulator as an example of the power of exploring site-specific drought trends and predictions.

Science Support Framework Category: Applications

Author(s): John Bradford (jbradford@usgs.gov) – USGS Southwest Biological Science Center, Caitlin Andrews (candrews@usgs.gov) - USGS Southwest Biological Science Center, David Pilliod (dpilliod@usgs.gov) - USGS Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Justin Welty (jwelty@usgs.gov)- USGS Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Michelle Jeffries (mjeffries@usgs.gov) - USGS Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Linda Schueck (lschueck@usgs.gov) - USGS Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center