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Insect pests cost billions of dollars per year globally, negatively impacting food crops and infrastructure and contributing to the spread of disease. Timely information regarding developmental stages of pests can increase efficiency and effectiveness of early detection and control. To address this need, the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) created a suite of “Pheno Forecast” map products relevant to science and management. Pheno Forecasts indicate, for a specified day, the status of the insect’s life cycle stage in real time across the contiguous United States. These risk maps are available daily, up to 6 days in the future, to enhance decision-making and short-term planning by natural resource managers and the public. Maps are available via the USA-NPN visualization tool (www.usanpn.org/data/visualizations) and website (www.usanpn.org/data/forecasts). In the spirit of knowledge coproduction, the USA-NPN staff sought input from end users over the course of product and tool development through in-person meetings, emails, calls, and a web-based feedback form. The approach for stakeholder engagement, and the technical workflow to generate the Pheno Forecast maps, are replicable and readily transferrable within USGS. The USA-NPN is expanding Pheno Forecasts to an invasive plant, buffelgrass (Pennisetum ciliare), using PRISM precipitation data. Maps will go live Summer 2019.

Science Support Framework Category: Applications

Author(s): Theresa M. Crimmins, Katharine L. Gerst, R. Lee Marsh, Erin E. Posthumus, Alyssa H. Rosemartin, and Jeff Switzer, University of Arizona, and Jake F. Weltzin and Toni Lyn Morelli, US Geological Survey



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